The Eagles, Bills and Cowboys have been three of the NFL’s best teams this season, but all of them revealed defensive weaknesses in Week 10 losses.
The Bills’ defensive injuries are mounting, and they can’t get off the field on third-and-long. The Cowboys and Eagles have serious issues against the run, though they struggle against it in different ways. Are these issues fixable, or will they be leaks that sink these playoff contenders?
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Bills’ third-down defense
The Bills invested in Von Miller to supercharge their pass rush, and he has — Buffalo ranks third in pressure rate without blitzing (35.7 percent), according to TruMedia. But even with one of the most feared four-man rushes in the league, the Bills are 22nd in defensive conversion rate on third-and-long, allowing opponents to move the chains 27.9 percent of the time when needing 7 or more yards. Before Week 10, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings only converted 17.6 percent of third-and-longs, which ranked 28th; against the Bills, the Vikings converted five of 12 opportunities, a 41.7 percent clip.
The Bills’ inability to get off the field on third-and-long is concerning. The secondary looks like it deserves a bulk of the blame, but is this a coverage scheme problem or a personnel problem?
The Bills were missing All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer in their two most recent games. They’ve also been without star safety Micah Hyde since Week 3, and All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White hasn’t played all season. That’s a lot of lost talent in the secondary. For most of the season, the Bills have flexed their depth and still been one of the NFL’s best defenses, but the cracks are starting to show. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is pressing all the buttons he can, but at the end of the day, players have to make plays.
Week 10, 11:52 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-7
On third-and-7, the Bills had a cone bracket on Justin Jefferson on the weak side, meaning cornerback Dane Jackson played Jefferson with outside leverage while safety Cam Lewis played Jefferson with inside leverage.
Because Jackson lined up outside, Jefferson was able to get an inside release. Jefferson is one of the best route runners in the league, and here he burst into his stem and made a sharp cut inside at the top of it. Lewis was threatened by Jefferson’s vertical acceleration and couldn’t drive inside when Jefferson cut that way. Cousins hit Jefferson for an easy 14-yard pickup and a first down.
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Week 10, 9:27 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-10
Later in the drive, the Vikings lined up in a three-by-one formation again. The Bills showed a single high safety this time, but Lewis crept over to double Jefferson.
This time, Jackson bounced inside so Jefferson wouldn’t have access, and Lewis got over the top outside of Jefferson. However, the Vikings were a step ahead and went to the three-receiver side.
They faked a wide receiver tunnel screen, and nickel Taron Johnson took the cheese, leaving his man, K.J. Osborn, wide open down the sideline.
Throughout the game, Jefferson made some fantastic plays, including a one-hander on fourth-and-18. It’s tough to pin plays like that on Frazier. Even with a banged-up secondary, the Bills are still playing tight coverage. Having a difficult time against arguably the best receiver in football right now is understandable.
Buffalo should have Poyer back soon and White back eventually, which will bolster the Bills’ secondary. With their four-man pass rush, the Bills should be able to get off the field on third-and-long more frequently. I’m not too worried about the Bills’ defense dooming their chances for success in the playoffs unless they keep having bad injury luck.
Bills HC Sean McDermott said S Jordan Poyer will practice Wednesday.
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) November 16, 2022
Eagles’ soft front
The Eagles, like many teams, have transitioned to a Vic Fangio-influenced defense under coordinator Jonathan Gannon. When keeping two safeties deep at the expense of having more bodies in the box, the focus is not necessarily stopping the run but slowing it down. The problem is the Eagles aren’t even slowing it down enough. They have allowed 32 runs of 10-plus yards, which is only tied for 13th-most in the NFL, but they rank 28th in success rate against the run (54.8 percent).
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Translation: Philadelphia has the team speed to avoid getting gashed, but it is getting cut repeatedly. On Monday, the Washington Commanders handed the Eagles their first loss of the season by committing to handing the ball off 49 times for just 152 yards (3.1 yards per carry).
The Eagles tried to bring more bodies into the box against Washington, but they don’t have the personnel to hold the line of scrimmage. Team speed helps them corral runners and limit big plays, but the Eagles get pushed around up front, and their linebackers are arguably the weakest position group on the team.
2:00 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Eagles were in their “tite” front with edge Josh Sweat in a three-point stance to the strong side of the formation. They had five players up front, two linebackers (T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White) behind them and safety Marcus Epps lined up in the box as well.
The Commanders had a variation of counter called with two tight ends pulling to the front side. These types of defensive fronts are especially susceptible to counters, and the Eagles have had a lot of trouble defending them.
After the snap, both Edwards and White followed the pullers, but both ended up in the same gap, making them easy to block. Fletcher Cox weighs 311 pounds, but he often plays too high and can get out-leveraged, like he was on this play.
Cox was completely displaced, driven nearly 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. The ball carrier wasn’t touched until he was a full 3 yards downfield.
One of the overarching philosophies of this defense is to force offenses into third downs, and the Eagles did that. The Commanders faced 21 third downs, but on 11 of them, the offense needed 3 yards or less to convert. The Commanders converted on eight of those 11 tries. For the season, the Eagles have allowed opponents to move the chains on 62.1 percent of third-down runs, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
GO DEEPER
The Day After: With perfection gone, Eagles clear-eyed about what comes next
Looking at a wider scope, though, the Eagles’ defensive philosophy has worked well. They were 8-0, after all. Though the Commanders pulled it off on Monday, it’s hard converting a lot of third downs in a single game.
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Struggling more than expected against the Texans and losing to the Commanders should have the Eagles a little more concerned about their run defense, but luckily they should have help coming soon. Jordan Davis, their first-round rookie nose tackle, is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 13. They need his presence to play their desired style of defense. The Eagles’ defensive success rate against early-down runs jumps from 56.5 percent when Davis is off the field to 62.1 percent when he’s on the field, according to TruMedia. That’s equivalent to the difference between the 18th-ranked early-down run defense and the 30th-ranked early-down run defense.
Still, the Eagles can’t rely on Davis to fix all their issues when he returns. Their front seven need to take on the responsibility of improving individually.
Cowboys’ big-play problem
The Cowboys also have major issues defending the run, but not in the same way the Eagles do. The Cowboys rank ninth in success rate against the run (62.6 percent), but they’ve given up 40 runs of 10 or more yards, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. So Dallas doesn’t give up efficient runs consistently but gets gashed by big runs.
Against the Packers, the Cowboys particularly struggled against perimeter runs. Green Bay had a 71 percent rushing success rate when running outside. On Tuesday, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn said the Cowboys had “crack replace issues” that they have to fix. Crack replace is the secondary’s responsibility, usually a cornerback’s.
5:58 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-8
Here, the Packers called “crack toss.” On this play, the slot receiver cracked the defensive end, while the outside receiver cracked the strong safety. When Trevon Diggs sees the receiver crack, he has to replace by coming up to the line of scrimmage and playing the run.
Diggs’ effort was lackluster. He stood upright, reacted slowly and gave up too much space to the ball carrier. But multiple defenders could have played this better, not just Diggs. For example, defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence flew upfield, which made it easy to crack him.
The Cowboys are an aggressive single-gap team. They fire off the ball and get upfield, which can be disruptive, but teams can create explosive runs if they can get past the first level.
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Though the Cowboys aren’t getting beat physically on a consistent basis, mental lapses have also led to explosive runs.
1:48 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-5
There seemed to be multiple mistakes made on Aaron Jones’ second-quarter touchdown run. The Cowboys might have called a stunt that was miscommunicated. To the defensive left, two players ended up in the C gap, and on the weak side, defensive tackle Quinton Bohanna went to the B gap, leaving Micah Parsons by himself to play the frontside B gap and A gap, as well as the backside A gap. Parsons is one of the fastest players in the NFL, but this is a tough ask even for him.
On top of covering so much space, Parsons had to deal with the center, who had a free release to him.
Parsons still almost made a play. Jones had to run horizontally to get away from him. This is actually a great job by Parsons considering the situation. Making Jones run sideways bought time for the secondary to come up and help. Strong safety Jayron Kearse looked like he was in position to make a play, but Jones got outside of him and scored.
“Until we (put) out this fire, we’re gonna keep seeing it,” Parsons said after the game. “If people want to keep doing their own thing, we’re gonna deal with this all year. We have to be accountable. We have to stay in our gaps, gotta stop the run. Until we do that, it’s gonna be a long year.”
Parsons is right. The Cowboys have to have better support from the secondary to limit explosive runs, and they have to clean up the mental lapses.
Like the Eagles and Bills, the Cowboys are one of the most talented teams in the NFL. But all three need to fix these defensive weaknesses before they potentially become more costly in the postseason.
(Illustration, from left, of Fletcher Cox, Von Miller and Micah Parsons: John Bradford / The Athletic; Getty Images)
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